Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
85 mana
Total volume
1.2K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Anthropic file a therapeutic patent before July 2029?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 2:42 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 65.9% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 85 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
65.9%
Little changed over 24 hours
Not live — snapshot Oct 27, 2:42 AM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
42%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
15
Trades
37
over 119 days
Largest order
500 mana
1.2K mana traded across these 37 trades (last 119 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$1.2K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Panda of Elicit recently gave a talk at Manifest 2026, "Contra the OmniCompany", which argues against a single corporation (like Anthropic) growing to encompass the entire economy. (The talk was great btw, hope we can publish the slides!) I think I'm more of an omnicompany suspector than Panda; we agreed to this 1:1 bet for $100.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Panda of Elicit recently gave a talk at Manifest 2026, "Contra the OmniCompany", which argues against a single corporation (like Anthropic) growing to encompass the entire economy. (The talk was great btw, hope we can publish the slides!) I think I'm more of an omnicompany suspector than Panda; we agreed to this 1:1 bet for $100. (fwiw I didn't really think much about the specific terms for more than like 5 seconds; please consider my bet extremely weak evidence) Terms, as proposed by Panda: Resolves NO (I win) unless, for a patent application filed by June 30, 2029, Anthropic PBC or any majority-owned subsidiary appears, in any jurisdiction, as applicant or assignee on a granted patent or published application containing a composition-of-matter claim on a therapeutic (small molecule, biologic, or cell/gene therapy). Final settlement Dec 31, 2030, so the publication lag can catch up; an official Anthropic announcement of such a filing settles early against me.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJune 30, 2029 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 27, 4:28 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
19Low
Where the price path tends to go next516 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0