Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
235.1 mana
Total volume
247.2 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 11, 2026, 10:55 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 47.1% (up from 27.2% 24 hours earlier). It had 235.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (19.9 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
235.1 mana
Total volume
247.2 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
6
Trades
45
over 116 days
Largest order
100 mana
321.6 mana traded across these 45 trades (last 116 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Representative Angie Craig is officially appointed by the Governor of Minnesota to fill a vacancy in the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Amy Klobuchar.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Representative Angie Craig is officially appointed by the Governor of Minnesota to fill a vacancy in the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Amy Klobuchar. This market resolves to NO if: Another individual is appointed to fill the vacancy in Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat. Amy Klobuchar does not vacate her Senate seat, or no official appointment is made to fill her seat, on or before December 31, 2027. The seat becomes vacant and is filled directly by a special election without any interim appointment being made. Official announcements from the Office of the Governor of Minnesota, major news outlets (such as MPR News, The Minnesota Star Tribune, or the Associated Press), or the official U.S. Senate website (senate.gov) will serve as the sources of truth for this market. Background In January 2026, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar announced her candidacy for Governor of Minnesota. Because her current Senate term runs until January 2031, winning the gubernatorial election in November 2026 would require her to vacate her Senate seat. Under Minnesota law, the sitting governor has the authority to make a temporary appointment to fill a U.S. Senate vacancy until a subsequent special election can be held. Simultaneously, U.S. Representative Angie Craig and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan are competing in the August 2026 Democratic primary to succeed retiring Senator Tina Smith. Political analysts and commentators have speculated that the runner-up of that primary, or another prominent state DFL figure, could be a logical choice for appointment to Klobuchar's vacant seat should she win the governorship.
The probability rose 19.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (27.2% → 47.1%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 10:57 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
24h volume
235.1 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
247.2 mana