ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noiseUpdated 4h ago

Will an AI model generate a major novel physics theory that is experimentally confirmed by the end of 2037?

As of Oct 28, 2026, 6:38 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 58.9% (down from 68.1% 24 hours earlier). It had 70 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
58.9%
−9.2 percentage points
over 24 hours68.1% → 58.9%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingStale priceNot live — snapshot Oct 28, 6:38 PM ET

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

1K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

70 mana

Total volume

495 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
51%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

9

Trades

20

over 49 days

Largest order

250 mana

495 mana traded across these 20 trades (last 49 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$495 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This question resolves YES if, at any point prior to December 31, 2037, all four of the following conditions are met. Otherwise, the question resolves NO.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This question resolves YES if, at any point prior to December 31, 2037, all four of the following conditions are met. Otherwise, the question resolves NO. Attribution & Origin An artificial intelligence system (an autonomous model, algorithm, or AI agent) must generate, derive, or synthesize the core mathematical framework, field equations, or conceptual mechanism of a novel physics theory. Publication & Attribution Requirement: The theory must be published in a peer-reviewed journal recognized by the Web of Science (e.g., Physical Review Letters, Physical Review X, Nature, or Science). Compliance with Publishing Standards: Because major academic publishers prohibit listing non-human software as a formal paper author, the AI model does not need to be listed as a co-author. However, the main text, Methods section, or Formal Acknowledgments of the published paper must explicitly credit the AI system as the primary source or generator of the core theoretical mechanism. Quantitative Novelty The theory must make a quantitative prediction that differs significantly from the Standard Model of Particle Physics and/or standard $\Lambda\text{CDM}$ cosmological model. The prediction could fall into at one of these domains: A particle decay mode, cross-section, or branching ratio (e.g., specific proton decay channels like $p \to K^+\bar{\nu}$) A cosmological signal (e.g., stochastic gravitational wave background spectral index, CMB non-Gaussianity features) A fundamental parameter, coupling constant, or anomaly shift (e.g., resolving the Hubble tension or predicting an explicit electron Electric Dipole Moment) A topological defect or relic particle signature (e.g., magnetic monopole mass bounds, dark matter interaction thresholds) I will evaluate other domains as they become relevant but this should give market participants a good idea of the class of predition I am thinking of. Empirical Verification An independent experimental collaboration (e.g., CERN/LHC, Hyper-Kamiokande, LEGEND, LISA, NANOGrav, JWST, or an equivalent peer-reviewed experimental physics facility) must publish experimental data confirming the AI's prediction. The confirmation must satisfy either of the following standard physics benchmarks: Positive Signal Discovery: A statistically significant discovery reaching at least the $5\sigma$ threshold ($p < 2.87 \times 10^{-7}$). Precision/Constraint Verification: A measured physical parameter or upper/lower bound that falls within the AI theory's specifically predicted confidence interval, in a region where standard physics predicted a different parameter range or a null outcome. Post-dictions and Data Leakage: The prediction must be published before the experimental data confirming it is publicly released or presented at a conference. Theories derived by fitting existing, unreleased, or preliminary public datasets do not qualify. Mathematical Re-wrapping: Reframing an existing theoretical framework (e.g., re-deriving known Standard Model predictions using new tensor notation or alternative vector spaces) without predicting a novel physical outcome does not qualify. Pure Numerical Simulations: Standard computational simulations running known laws of physics (e.g., lattice QCD calculations) do not qualify. The AI must propose new physics. Resolution Source & Edge-Case Handling Primary Sources: Official press releases and peer-reviewed confirmation papers from the experimental physics collaboration, alongside primary literature (Nature, Science, APS Physics). Disputes on Credit: If there is controversy regarding whether the human authors or the AI conceived the core idea, resolution will rely on the explicit methodology statement in the primary peer-reviewed paper. If the human authors state the AI was merely used for copyediting, literature formatting, or basic code execution, the market resolves NO.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 9.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (68.1% → 58.9%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2037 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 28, 10:15 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 5.8 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
  • Flow one-directional across 9 participants (broad, not a single order)

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
18Low
Where the price path tends to go next464 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet97%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~16h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H-5.824H-9.27D-9.2