ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDevelopingUpdated 9m ago

Will Alice Weidel become next German chancellor before 2030?

As of Oct 11, 2026, 4:24 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 6.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 110 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
6.0%
Little changed over 24 hours

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with only a few recent trades.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

110 mana

Total volume

110 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

Too few trades
91%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

2

Trades

2

over 13 min

Largest order

100 mana

110 mana traded across these 2 trades (last 13 min).

Too few recent trades to say who is setting this price.

Recent trade activity$110 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2029 at 6:00 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:33 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
9Low
Where the price path tends to go next998 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

110 mana

Liquidity

100 mana

Total volume

110 mana

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
6.0%
7-day range
6.0% – 6.0%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2029
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

Related markets

All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?

29%YESTrust 49
Manifold301 mana 24h

Will there be a second Ice / Fairy type pokemon released by the end of 2029?

32%YESTrust 36
Manifold130 mana 24h

Will there be a 7th playable Rotom pokemon form released by the end of 2029?

31%YESTrust 26
Manifold66.7 mana 24h

Will there be a second Steel / Fire type pokemon released by the end of 2029?

31%YESTrust 26
Manifold66 mana 24h

Will there be a second Ground / Fighting pokemon released by the end of 2029?

29%YESTrust 0
Manifold63 mana 24h

Will there be a second Water / Steel type pokemon released by the end of 2029?

28%YESTrust 0
Manifold62 mana 24h