Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
134.4 mana
Total volume
0 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Alibaba release any Qwen 4 model before November 09, 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, 10:53 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 52.3% (up from 34.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 134.4 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
52.3%
+18.3 percentage points
over 24 hours34.0% → 52.3%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingResolving soonNot live — snapshot Nov 2, 10:53 PM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (10.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
52%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
11
over 21h
Largest order
50 mana
143.6 mana traded across these 11 trades (last 21h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$143.6 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if Alibaba/Qwen publicly releases any model officially named Qwen 4 (e.g. Qwen4-Max, Qwen4-Plus, Qwen4-Flash, Qwen4-27B) before 00:00 CET on November 09, 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if Alibaba/Qwen publicly releases any model officially named Qwen 4 (e.g. Qwen4-Max, Qwen4-Plus, Qwen4-Flash, Qwen4-27B) before 00:00 CET on November 09, 2026. “Released” means anyone can actually use it, through one of these: Open weights on the official Qwen Hugging Face or ModelScope page Public API access on Alibaba Cloud / Qwen API Availability in Qwen Chat Resolves NO otherwise. Doesn’t count: Announcements, blog posts, benchmarks, or dates with no usable model Qwen3.8-Flash-Next or “Qwen4-Exp” (the architecture preview that’s already out) Leaks, unofficial uploads, or anonymous arena models If the release time is unclear, I’ll use the earliest official timestamp (HF repo creation, official post, or API docs).
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 18.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (34.0% → 52.3%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 8, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 3, 1:32 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 10.5 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
15Low
Where the price path tends to go next355 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~3h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+10.524H+18.37D+18.3