ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noiseUpdated 5m ago

Will Alibaba publish open weights for a Qwen 4 model on Hugging Face by November 25, 2026?

As of Oct 29, 2026, 5:58 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 86.5% (up from 42.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 152 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability

86.5%

+44.5 percentage points

over 24 hours42.0% → 86.5%

Moving fastBig move, weak backingEnds Nov 25, 2026 · 27 days

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

152 mana

Total volume

152 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates

99%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

Trades

over 1 min

Largest order

150 mana

152 mana traded across these 3 trades (last 1 min).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$152 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolves YES if, by November 25, 2026, 23:59 UTC, Alibaba's Qwen team publishes downloadable model weights for any model officially named Qwen 4 (any size or tier, e.g. "Qwen4-27B", "Qwen4-Flash") on its official Hugging Face organisation, https://huggingface.co/Qwen. The weights must be public: anyone with a free Hugging Face account can download them, even if the repo asks you to accept a licence first. Resolves NO otherwise. What doesn't count: API-only or chat-app-only releases (Qwen 4 Max on Alibaba Cloud / QwenCloud with no downloadable weights). Models named Qwen 3.x, even if Alibaba describes them as a "preview of the Qwen 4 architecture" (for example the Qwen3.8-Flash preview released on Aug 24, 2026). Weights uploaded only by third parties (re-uploads, quantisations or leaks), or weights that appear only on ModelScope. Resolution source: the huggingface.co/Qwen model list and each repo's commit history (the date of the first public commit containing weight files). I'll post a link to the repo when resolving. Background: At the Apsara Conference on Sep 22, 2026, Alibaba previewed four Qwen 4 tiers: Max, Plus and Flash as hosted API models, plus a 27B open-weights model. They said Qwen 4 was "in training" and would arrive "very soon". As of Oct 24, 2026, no release date has been announced and no Qwen 4 weights are on Hugging Face. I won't trade in this market during its first 7 days.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 44.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (42.0% → 86.5%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

The market's deadline arrivesNovember 25, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 29, 6:04 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence

Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

Probability moved 44.5 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability

Reliability score

5Low

Where the price path tends to go next498 observed

Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~2h

PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H+44.524H+44.57D+44.5

Will Alibaba publish open weights for a Qwen 4 model on Hugging Face by November 25, 2026?

How credible was the move?

Move validity

Consensus stability

Contract clarity

Can you trust this price?

Market capacity

Who's trading

What this market actually measures

Why the odds moved

What could move this market next?

What's happening

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