Will Alabama Amendment 1 (Lt. governor vacancy elections and salaries) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Alabama Amendment 1 (Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 2022, to provide for the election of a Lieutenant Governor if the Office of Lieutenant Governor becomes vacant during the first two years of a term, to authorize the Legislature to set the salary of the Lieutenant Governor and officers of the Legislature, and to require any expenditure of legislative funds for travel to be approved by a legislative officer. Proposed by Act 2026-341.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the amendment (Ala. Const. 2022 §§284-285) Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Per Fair Ballot Commission: the Alabama Constitution will be changed (vacancy election for Lt. Governor; Legislature sets Lt. Gov./officer pay by joint resolution; travel spending needs officer approval). NO: Per Fair Ballot Commission: the Alabama Constitution will not be changed; a Lt. Governor vacancy stays open until the next regular election and the Constitution keeps setting those salaries. Results: resolves on the result certified by Returns to Secretary of State; State Canvassing Board (Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General) certifies; Governor proclaims result (Ala. Const. §285). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/2026-08/FBCStatewideAmendment-1.pdf