Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
20 mana
Total volume
288.2 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027?
As of Oct 18, 2026, 9:40 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 52.5% (up from 42.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 20 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
52.5%
+10.5 percentage points
over 24 hours42.0% → 52.5%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (10.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
34%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
13
Trades
32
over 93 days
Largest order
50 mana
267.6 mana traded across these 32 trades (last 93 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$267.6 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Specifically will I stop thinking it's dumb. My judgement.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Specifically will I stop thinking it's dumb. My judgement. Note that it can be very smart and still be dumb. Free tier only. Example of it being dumb and contradicting itself: [image]Also, regarding fiber optic drones, "A system optimized for combat may intentionally allow a lot of slack and avoid applying excessive tension because a snapped cable is preferable to losing the drone." Update 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will evaluate the following free tier AI products: ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, and Perplexity. Update 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria clarified: Resolves YES if one AI becomes consistently good enough that the creator switches to it for personal use and no longer finds it dumb Resolves NO if all tested AIs are sometimes dumb and sometimes good, even if at least one gives a good answer to every question when multiple are queried Products being evaluated: ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Perplexity (free tier only) Update 2026-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Behavior where an AI is "knowingly, competently deceiving" the user counts as "being dumb" for the purposes of this market.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 10.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (42.0% → 52.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 18, 9:53 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 10.5 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
10Low
Where the price path tends to go next592 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~5h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+10.524H+10.57D+10.5
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