Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
10K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
1 mana
Total volume
255 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will 0x7A68AB21211e1338b1b019FFD65f69a0fcA8c6A4 RECEIVE more than 100.00 USDC Base by October 15th 11:59 pm UTC
As of Oct 11, 2026, 11:28 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 6.6% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 10K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
6.6%
Little changed over 24 hours
Resolving soonNot live — snapshot Oct 11, 11:28 PM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
59%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
9
over 35h
Largest order
100 mana
255 mana traded across these 9 trades (last 35h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$255 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the native USDC balance of the specified wallet address on the Base network is strictly greater than 100.00 USDC at ANY POINT BEFORE October the 15th at 11:59 pm UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the native USDC balance of the specified wallet address on the Base network is strictly greater than 100.00 USDC at ANY POINT BEFORE October the 15th at 11:59 pm UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. Target Wallet Address: 0x7A68AB21211e1338b1b019FFD65f69a0fcA8c6A4 Source of Truth: The balance will be verified via BaseScan. Only native USDC (USD Coin) qualifies; bridged USDbC or other tokens are excluded... https://basescan.org/address/0x7A68AB21211e1338b1b019FFD65f69a0fcA8c6A4
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 15, 2026 at 7:58 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 12:25 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
18Low
Where the price path tends to go next447 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting94%
- Stable consensus2%
- Thin-liquidity spike2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
1 mana
Liquidity
10K mana
Total volume
255 mana
- Category
- Crypto
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 6.6%
- Resolves
- Oct 15, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
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