Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
1K mana
Total volume
11.5K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
US Average DIESEL Price Is $6.000 or more on Election Day 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, 3:53 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 96.0% (up from 94.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 1K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
96.0%
+2 percentage points
over 24 hours94.0% → 96.0%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
69%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
17
Trades
74
over 11 days
Largest order
500 mana
4.8K mana traded across these 74 trades (last 11 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$4.8K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
https://gasprices.aaa.com/ [link preview]regular, current DIESEL avg on ELECTION DAY, Tuesday November 3, 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
https://gasprices.aaa.com/ [link preview]regular, current DIESEL avg on ELECTION DAY, Tuesday November 3, 2026.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 4:01 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 69% of recent flow
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
21Low
Where the price path tends to go next524 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~44h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+2.07D+2.0