This market resolves to whatever you persuade me to.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 52.3%.
- Final market price
- 52.3%
- Event deadline
- June 30, 2026 at 2:29 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 52.3%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
This market resolves to whatever you persuade me to. The final Manifold price was 52.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 52.3%.
- Market data as of
- June 24, 2026 at 9:27 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 30, 2026 at 2:29 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 118d ago
What this market actually measures
Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Simply trading to shift the market percentage will not be sufficient to persuade the creator The default starting resolution is 50% if no one persuades the creator
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Simply trading to shift the market percentage will not be sufficient to persuade the creator The default starting resolution is 50% if no one persuades the creator