Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
155.7 mana
Total volume
155.7 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
TEst
As of Oct 29, 2026, 11:28 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 60.8% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 155.7 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
60.8%
Little changed over 24 hours
Stale priceResolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
58%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
4
Trades
17
over 1 min
Largest order
40 mana
141 mana traded across these 17 trades (last 1 min).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$141 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
hihi
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
hihi
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 31, 2026 at 12:59 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 29, 11:35 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Stale price
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
18Low
Where the price path tends to go next451 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
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