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The probability is essentially unchanged over the last 24 hours. No meaningful probability movement was detected over the past 24 hours.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] The current Manifold probability is 3.4%, essentially unchanged over the last 24 hours. ProbCast classifies this as Stable with medium confidence because trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Polymarket prices this same question at 34% vs Manifold at 3%. That is a meaningful gap — when venues disagree, treat any single number with caution rather than as a settled probability.
Compare on Polymarket →This question will resolve if IMF PortWatch reports that the 7 day moving average for the Strait of Hormuz is at least 85 by August 31st. This uses Metaculus rules. September 30th is currently the median estimate per Metaculus. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42728/strait-of-hormuz-normalization-date/
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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