Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Final market price
- 1.0%
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] The final Manifold price was 1.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Market data as of
- October 3, 2026 at 8:20 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:44 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 17d ago
What this market actually measures
This question will resolve if IMF PortWatch reports that the 7 day moving average for the Strait of Hormuz is at least 85 by August 31st. This uses Metaculus rules.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This question will resolve if IMF PortWatch reports that the 7 day moving average for the Strait of Hormuz is at least 85 by August 31st. This uses Metaculus rules. September 30th is currently the median estimate per Metaculus. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42728/strait-of-hormuz-normalization-date/