Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
250 mana
Total volume
604.2 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avengers: Endgame"? (>$2.8B worldwide)
As of Oct 18, 2026, 3:40 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 2.2% (down from 5.3% 24 hours earlier). It had 250 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
2.2%
−3.2 percentage points
over 24 hours5.3% → 2.2%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3.2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
42%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
15
over 50 days
Largest order
250 mana
595.6 mana traded across these 15 trades (last 50 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$595.6 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Spider-Man: Brand New Day (2026) achieves a lifetime worldwide box office gross of $2,797,501,328 ($2.79 billion) or more by February 28, 2027. If it does not reach this milestone by that date, the market resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Spider-Man: Brand New Day (2026) achieves a lifetime worldwide box office gross of $2,797,501,328 ($2.79 billion) or more by February 28, 2027. If it does not reach this milestone by that date, the market resolves to NO. Resolution will be determined using the official worldwide box office figures reported on: Box Office Mojo All-Time Worldwide Chart The Numbers All-Time Worldwide Chart If there is a slight discrepancy between the two sources, the higher of the two reported figures will be used. Any box office adjustments or re-releases that occur after February 28, 2027, will not count toward resolution.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 3.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (5.3% → 2.1%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesMarch 1, 2027 at 12:59 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 18, 3:48 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
14Low
Where the price path tends to go next610 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~29h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-3.224H-3.27D-3.2
Related markets
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
1%YESTrust 88
Polymarket$58.3K 24h
Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?
4%YESTrust 57
Kalshi$473.5 24h
Will the Kendrick Lamar/South Park movie get a U.S. theatrical release date announced in 2026?
13%YESTrust 56
Manifold1.3K mana 24h
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
83%YESTrust 43
Kalshi$77.8 24h
Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027?
27%YESTrust 54
Kalshi$207.8 24h
Will the President be impeached before Apr 1, 2027?
32%YESTrust 34
Kalshi$23.8 24h