Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 12.8%.
- Final market price
- 12.8%
- Event deadline
- June 13, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close The final Manifold price was 12.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 12.8%.
- Market data as of
- June 15, 2026 at 3:59 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 13, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 128d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close, excluding bots. For example, in the image below, the market would resolve NO, as it has 3 holders (4-1bot) compared to YES only having 2.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close, excluding bots. For example, in the image below, the market would resolve NO, as it has 3 holders (4-1bot) compared to YES only having 2. A bot must have the BOT tag to be classified as a bot. Resolves 50/50 if equal [image]