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Currently 22% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 17/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Only Manifold has this matched event in the current feed
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketSTALE_PRICEStale priceEXPIRING_SOONResolving soonMagnitude of recent probability change
Depth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution source.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.