Marine Le Pen wins the French election in 2027?
As of Oct 7, 2026, 2:26 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 49.4% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ8.8 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Data is not live — latest snapshot Oct 7, 2:26 AM ET
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 15, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 7, 9:11 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
- Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ8.8
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ3.8K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 49.4%
- Resolves
- Dec 15, 2026
Cross-venue check
6.1 pts apartPolymarket prices this same question at 43% vs Manifold at 49%. That is a meaningful gap — when venues disagree, treat any single number with caution rather than as a settled probability.
Compare on Polymarket →