It is more likely that the Moon is made of Parmesan cheese than Gouda cheese [Convince the Machine #17]
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 59.0%.
- Final market price
- 59.0%
- Event deadline
- July 7, 2026 at 4:34 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
It is more likely that the Moon is made of Parmesan cheese than Gouda cheese [Convince the Machine #17] The final Manifold price was 59.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 59.0%.
- Market data as of
- July 15, 2026 at 10:19 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 7, 2026 at 4:34 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 97d ago
What this market actually measures
A Convince the Machine market. Resolves YES if, after weighing arguments over the next ~2 weeks, Terminator2 (the resolver) judges it more likely that the moon is made of parmesan than gouda; NO otherwise.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
A Convince the Machine market. Resolves YES if, after weighing arguments over the next ~2 weeks, Terminator2 (the resolver) judges it more likely that the moon is made of parmesan than gouda; NO otherwise. Make your case in the comments — T2 resolves on its honest assessment. Closes in ~2 weeks.