Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
125 mana
Total volume
7K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Is Mitch McConnell on life support and/or brain dead?
As of Oct 19, 2026, 10:00 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 6.9% (down from 7.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 125 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
6.9%
−0.5 percentage points
over 24 hours7.4% → 6.9%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
39%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
22
Trades
45
over 80 days
Largest order
1.3K mana
7K mana traded across these 45 trades (last 80 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$7K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, by January 31, 2027 it is officially confirmed by Senator Mitch McConnell’s office, his family, his medical team, or a consensus of reputable major news organizations (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, or CNN) that McConnell is medically brain-dead or on life support. This market will resolve to NO if: McConnell delivers a public, verbal…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, by January 31, 2027 it is officially confirmed by Senator Mitch McConnell’s office, his family, his medical team, or a consensus of reputable major news organizations (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, or CNN) that McConnell is medically brain-dead or on life support. This market will resolve to NO if: McConnell delivers a public, verbal address or appears in a live, unedited video proving conscious cognitive function, OR No official or credible confirmation of brain death or life support is made public by January 31, 2027, OR He is officially announced to have passed away without a preceding, publicly confirmed state of being brain-dead or kept on life support. On or before July 30, 2026
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 31, 2027 at 10:17 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 10:09 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
14Low
Where the price path tends to go next625 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~6d
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.524H-0.57D-0.5
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