Indonesia juara aff 2026
As of Oct 1, 2026, 10:42 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 8.0% (down from 14.8% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ99.1 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (6.8 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the Indonesia men's national football team wins the 2026 ASEAN Championship (officially known as the ASEAN Hyundai Cup 2026, and historically known as the AFF Championship or AFF Cup). The market resolves to NO if Indonesia is eliminated at any stage of the tournament (including the group stage, semi-finals, or final), or if another country wins the tournament.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the Indonesia men's national football team wins the 2026 ASEAN Championship (officially known as the ASEAN Hyundai Cup 2026, and historically known as the AFF Championship or AFF Cup). The market resolves to NO if Indonesia is eliminated at any stage of the tournament (including the group stage, semi-finals, or final), or if another country wins the tournament. Key details: Official Source: The official tournament website (https://www.aseanutdfc.com/) or the official Wikipedia page for the 2026 ASEAN Championship will be used to verify the winner. Tournament Postponement: If the tournament is delayed but completed at any point before December 31, 2027, the market will remain open and resolve based on the eventual winner. Cancellation: If the tournament is permanently canceled before a champion is declared, this market will resolve to N/A. Background The 2026 ASEAN Championship (the 16th edition of the Southeast Asian tournament) is scheduled to run from July 24 to August 26, 2026. As of August 4, 2026, the group stage is underway. Indonesia is placed in Group A alongside Vietnam, Singapore, Cambodia, and Timor-Leste. Following a 3–0 defeat against Vietnam on August 3, Indonesia sits in 3rd place in Group A with 6 points, requiring a victory in their final group match against Singapore on August 7 to qualify for the semi-finals. Indonesia has historically reached the tournament's final six times but has never won the championship. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 6.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours (14.8% → 8.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 10:47 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 6.8 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ99.1
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ255.8
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 8.0%
- 7-day range
- 8.0% – 14.8%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026