Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
41.7 mana
Total volume
63.7 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will a Cabinet nomination be rejected or withdrawn before January 3, 2029?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 13.1% (up from 10.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 41.7 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
13.1%
+3.1 percentage points
over 24 hours10.0% → 13.1%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
39%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
4
Trades
8
over 13 days
Largest order
25 mana
63.7 mana traded across these 8 trades (last 13 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$63.7 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Condition: Republicans control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Republican senators hold at least 50 seats (with the Republican Vice President breaking ties).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Condition: Republicans control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Republican senators hold at least 50 seats (with the Republican Vice President breaking ties). Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if, between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029, the Senate votes down, or the President withdraws, a nomination formally sent to the Senate to head one of the 15 executive departments (e.g. Attorney General, Secretary of Defense). Names floated or announced but never formally sent to the Senate don't count. Resolves NO otherwise. This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the Senate. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the Senate changes. Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 3.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours (10.0% → 13.1%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 3, 2029 at 12:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 10:24 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
14Low
Where the price path tends to go next581 observed
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
- Thin-liquidity spike1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~20h
PredictabilityStable
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+3.17D+3.1