Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
500 mana
Total volume
500 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
As of Oct 13, 2026, 7:09 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 19.4% (down from 30.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 500 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
19.4%
−10.6 percentage points
over 24 hours30.0% → 19.4%
Big move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — only a few trades sit behind today's move.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Too few trades
100%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
1
Trades
1
Largest order
500 mana
500 mana traded across these 1 trades.
Too few recent trades to say who is setting this price.
Recent trade activity$500 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Condition: Republicans win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Republican Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Condition: Republicans win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Republican Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party). If Democrats or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if a lapse in federal appropriations causes a shutdown (agencies begin orderly shutdown procedures and furlough non-excepted employees) that starts at any time during calendar year 2027 (U.S. Eastern time), whether full or partial. A lapse that starts in 2026 and continues into 2027 does not count; one starting in 2027 counts even if brief. Resolves NO otherwise. This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the House. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the House changes. Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 10.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (30.0% → 19.4%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 13, 7:11 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 100% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (1 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
17Low
Where the price path tends to go next743 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~6h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-10.67D-10.6
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