How will I rate Vilenkin 2003? (+free lottery)
Source: Manifold price history
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 49.0%
- Event deadline
- October 30, 2026 at 9:01 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
How will I rate Vilenkin 2003? (+free lottery) The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 49.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- October 30, 2026 at 9:05 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 31, 2026 at 4:21 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 30, 2026 at 9:01 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 7h ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution This market will resolve to x%. Number x will be my personal rating of the following literature on a 0-100 scale after studying it in more detail.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution This market will resolve to x%. Number x will be my personal rating of the following literature on a 0-100 scale after studying it in more detail. Vilenkin (2003) “Quantum cosmology and eternal inflation” Free Lottery After the market closes, I will generate a random number M among 1 to 100 using this algorithm. The Mth unique trader of this market wins 300 mana from the lottery prize pool, if such a trader exists. Otherwise, the lottery falls through till next time. For free play, make a trade with 1 mana and sell it. Your trade will be recorded and you will become a unique trader. Past winners @PaperBoy 100Ṁ @hogshedges 100Ṁ @Pancarre 300Ṁ @wolf 400Ṁ @Chumchulum 200Ṁ @KarlWang 4000Ṁ @WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ @2ndPairofBoots 300Ṁ @jbm 300Ṁ @AritificialJudgement 300Ṁ @Primer 300Ṁ @Brierbr 300Ṁ @DaleKirkwood 300Ṁ @WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ (second time winner) @Chimpy 300Ṁ @Chimpy 300Ṁ (second time winner) @dawxgBot 300Ṁ @Handmadefilms 300Ṁ @AIM 300Ṁ