Generation Starship By 2150

At the rate that wealth and wealth concentration is expanding, there will be enough wealth with the wealthiest person by 2110 that will be in the hundreds of trillions of dollars that building a generation starship will be like embarking on a 5 decade welfare program of a large economy of today, except in the hands of a committed multicentitrillionaire (Gemini AI's Version) If the Bloomberg Billionaires Index or its widely recognized equivalent certifies any individual's net worth at or above $2.0 Trillion (USD) at any point before July 1, 2030, will the Metaculus community consensus probability for a 'Generation Starship launch by 2150' close above 1.0% on July 31, 2030? Update 2026-09-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * If the referenced Metaculus question is never asked, the market will resolve to NO. Update 2026-09-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the conditions of the market are not met, it will resolve to N/A. Update 2026-09-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will resolve to NO at its current position (the creator currently evaluates the probability for 2150 at 0.19%). The market will resolve to YES if the Metaculus community value x reaches 8.0 and an individual's net worth is certified at or above $2.0 Trillion USD before July 1, 2030. Update 2026-09-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator is tracking a Metaculus question phrased as "interstellar", which they interpret literally as 120 AU (referencing Fable 5.1). Update 2026-09-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Resolution Oracle: Metaculus question 1637 (community recency-weighted forecast), read on July 31, 2030 using the PDF toggle at September 15, 2150. YES Resolution: Requires the Metaculus value to be ≥ 8.0 (representing ~1% per year) AND a certified net worth of ≥ $2.0 Trillion USD before July 1, 2030. NO Resolution: Resolves to NO if either condition fails, or if Metaculus question 1637 is closed, annulled, or its display changes such that the value cannot be read. The creator will not resolve early or on judgment calls. Update 2026-09-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Alternative Questions: The creator may switch the resolution source from Metaculus question 1637 to a closer question if it has more than 100 voters. Criteria for Closer Question: The new question must specify a crewed Generation Starship flight with at least a 200-year journey (rather than a vague "interstellar" label). No Creator Submission: The creator will not post the question on Metaculus themselves to avoid polluting the process.