Does Netanyahu lead the next government after the Israeli General Election?
Source: Manifold price history
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 11.0%
- Event deadline
- October 27, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Does Netanyahu lead the next government after the Israeli General Election? The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 11.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- October 27, 2026 at 7:03 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- November 2, 2026 at 5:01 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 27, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 6d ago
What this market actually measures
Will Netanyahu be chosen as Prime Minister and be able to form the next government after the Israeli General Election scheduled for October 27th? If he is not chosen as PM or fails to form a government after being chosen, this market will resolve to "no".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Will Netanyahu be chosen as Prime Minister and be able to form the next government after the Israeli General Election scheduled for October 27th? If he is not chosen as PM or fails to form a government after being chosen, this market will resolve to "no". Of both conditions are met, this market will resolve to "yes"