Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
1.2K mana
Total volume
1.2K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Did Ilhan Omar marry her brother?
As of Oct 22, 2026, 6:54 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 17.5% (down from 24.6% 24 hours earlier). It had 1.2K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
17.5%
−7.2 percentage points
over 24 hours24.6% → 17.5%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
UnsettledHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 6.1 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
39%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
7
Trades
8
over 2h
Largest order
500 mana
1.3K mana traded across these 8 trades (last 2h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$1.3K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 7.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (24.6% → 17.4%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2028 at 5:02 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 22, 7:07 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
TrendingLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Trending
A sustained one-directional drift. This can be a genuine trend or crowd herding; watch whether liquidity and breadth confirm the move.
- Directional drift sustained across 1h / 6h / 24h windows
- Executed flow sell-heavy (100%)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
4Low
Where the price path tends to go next477 observed
- Illiquid / quiet96%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H-6.16H-7.224H-7.27D-7.2