Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
610 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
1.8K mana
Total volume
2.1K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Democrats win Texas and Alaska US Senate Election?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 9:17 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 82.1% (up from 49.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 1.8K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 610 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
82.1%
+33.1 percentage points
over 24 hours49.0% → 82.1%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
48%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
19
Trades
37
over 49 days
Largest order
500 mana
1.6K mana traded across these 37 trades (last 49 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$1.6K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Texas: TALAFREAKO vs PEN MAN Alaska: FISH LADY vs Dan Sullivan™
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Texas: TALAFREAKO vs PEN MAN Alaska: FISH LADY vs Dan Sullivan™
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 33.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours (49.0% → 82.1%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 17, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 4, 9:26 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next739 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Thin-liquidity spike1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityLow· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityHigh irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+33.17D+33.1
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