Democrats win Alaska, Maine, Ohio and North Carolina for US Senate?
Data is not live — latest snapshot Aug 14, 6:39 PM ET
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
MediumModerate resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if democrats or those who intend to caucus with democrats win Alaska, Maine, Ohio and North Carolina for US senate in 2026. Resolves based on Major media reporting of election results or official results if needed.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if democrats or those who intend to caucus with democrats win Alaska, Maine, Ohio and North Carolina for US senate in 2026. Resolves based on Major media reporting of election results or official results if needed. This will probably resolve based on election calls by outlets such as the associated press. Resolves No if democrats lose at least 1 of these elections. (Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 15, 4:30 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
What's happening
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold