Israel closes its airspace by September 30?70%60.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?50%9.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?34%15.5Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?24%10.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 5?12%6.5Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%15.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%10.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?49%14.0Bitcoin Up or Down on September 5?65%4.0Did Claude just solve navier stokes??20%5.4Fed rate hike in 2026?72%10.0Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?11%6.0Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?86%21.0Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%8.0Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?93%4.6Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?4%3.8
ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 79d ago

Daily Coinflip

Final price
50.5%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 50.5%.

Final market price
50.5%
Event deadline
June 14, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Daily Coinflip The final Manifold price was 50.5%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 50.5%.

Market data as of
June 18, 2026 at 1:15 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:03 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 14, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
79d ago

What this market actually measures

! Block #DailyCoinflip to stop seeing these !

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

! Block #DailyCoinflip to stop seeing these ! Yes = heads No = tails (Day 512) Current totals: 264 heads vs 247 tails Longest streaks: 10 heads (days 12-22); 9 tails (days 479-488) Yesterday’s flip: Heads @FairlyRandom will be used to generate the outcome 1 = heads 2 = tails Resolution can be expected within 24 hours after closing Noteworthy Gamblers: Longest win streak: @Skyguy (of 7) Longest loss streak: @QuestionableQuentin (of 11) Biggest win: @evan (of Ṁ109,593 profit on day 329) Biggest loss: @JannesH (of -Ṁ63,765 on day 367) Most flips: [Submit a comment or DM to be featured] Contingencies: Should @FairlyRandom fail to produce a response 24 hours after the close date, and after additional @FairlyRandom roll requests (one over here > one on the testing market), I will manually resolve it according to a Google coinflip (outcome is final). Should I fail to generate and/or resolve the outcome within a week after the market’s close, a mod may do so instead.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ673.5

Liquidity

Ṁ10K

Total volume

Ṁ2.4K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
50.5%
Resolves
Jun 14, 2026

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