Chris Luxon NZ Prime Minister on 1 Feb 2027?
Data is not live — latest snapshot Aug 14, 6:39 PM ET
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves YES if Christopher Luxon is the Prime Minister of New Zealand on February 1, 2027. Resolution will be determined by checking official New Zealand government sources, such as the Beehive website (https://www.beehive.govt.nz/), which lists the current Prime Minister.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves YES if Christopher Luxon is the Prime Minister of New Zealand on February 1, 2027. Resolution will be determined by checking official New Zealand government sources, such as the Beehive website (https://www.beehive.govt.nz/), which lists the current Prime Minister. Background Luxon was sworn into office on November 27, 2023, leading the National Party in a coalition government. The last legal date for the next general election is 19 December 2026, meaning a new Prime Minister could potentially take office between now and February 1, 2027 if an election is held and a different party wins. Opinion polls show that Luxon's lack of popularity has deepened over his first 18 months in office, though recent polling suggests some stabilization. (Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesFebruary 1, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 15, 4:28 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
What's happening
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ0