Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
2.1K mana
Total volume
2.6K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Chris Luxon NZ Prime Minister on 1 Feb 2027?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 6:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 49.5% (down from 53.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 2.1K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
49.5%
−3.5 percentage points
over 24 hours53.0% → 49.5%
Stale price
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (1.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
53%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
12
Trades
68
over 56 days
Largest order
1K mana
3.4K mana traded across these 68 trades (last 56 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$3.4K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves YES if Christopher Luxon is the Prime Minister of New Zealand on February 1, 2027. Resolution will be determined by checking official New Zealand government sources, such as the Beehive website (https://www.beehive.govt.nz/), which lists the current Prime Minister.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves YES if Christopher Luxon is the Prime Minister of New Zealand on February 1, 2027. Resolution will be determined by checking official New Zealand government sources, such as the Beehive website (https://www.beehive.govt.nz/), which lists the current Prime Minister. Background Luxon was sworn into office on November 27, 2023, leading the National Party in a coalition government. The last legal date for the next general election is 19 December 2026, meaning a new Prime Minister could potentially take office between now and February 1, 2027 if an election is held and a different party wins. Opinion polls show that Luxon's lack of popularity has deepened over his first 18 months in office, though recent polling suggests some stabilization. (Identical market to: source market)
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 3.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (53.0% → 49.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesFebruary 1, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 6:34 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Stale price
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
39Medium
Where the price path tends to go next1009 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~1w
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
2.1K mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
2.6K mana
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 49.5%
- 7-day range
- 49.5% – 53.0%
- Resolves
- Feb 1, 2027
Change (pts)1H0.06H-1.524H-3.57D-3.5
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