ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDevelopingUpdated 8m ago

Chi vincerà il pallone d'oro???

As of Oct 11, 2026, 6:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 60.0% (up from 58.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
60.0%
+2 percentage points
over 24 hours58.0% → 60.0%

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

Medium

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

1K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

50 mana

Total volume

351 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
85%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

2

Trades

4

over 38h

Largest order

200 mana

351 mana traded across these 4 trades (last 38h).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$351 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria Questo mercato riguarda l'assegnazione del Pallone d'Oro maschile 2026, la cui cerimonia ufficiale si terrà a Londra il 26 ottobre 2026. Dato che si tratta di un mercato BINARIO (SÌ/NO) ma la domanda è formulata in modo aperto ("Chi vincerà..."), il mercato richiede che il creatore definisca un criterio specifico.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria Questo mercato riguarda l'assegnazione del Pallone d'Oro maschile 2026, la cui cerimonia ufficiale si terrà a Londra il 26 ottobre 2026. Dato che si tratta di un mercato BINARIO (SÌ/NO) ma la domanda è formulata in modo aperto ("Chi vincerà..."), il mercato richiede che il creatore definisca un criterio specifico. Si raccomanda al creatore del mercato di modificare la descrizione per chiarire la condizione di vittoria (es. "Il mercato risolve SÌ se il premio viene vinto da Lamine Yamal, altrimenti NO"). In assenza di ulteriori specifiche da parte del creatore prima della cerimonia: Il mercato risolverà SÌ se il vincitore del Pallone d'Oro sarà il favorito principale indicato dalle quote al momento della creazione del mercato (es. Harry Kane). Il mercato risolverà NO se il vincitore sarà un qualunque altro calciatore. In caso di totale ambiguità sul criterio, il mercato risolverà come N/A. La fonte ufficiale di riferimento per la verifica del vincitore è il sito ufficiale del premio (https://ballondor.com/) o il sito di France Football (https://www.lequipe.fr/). Background La 70ª edizione del Pallone d'Oro si svolgerà presso il London Palladium a Londra. Si tratta di un'edizione storica, in quanto l'evento abbandona la classica sede di Parigi in onore del 70° anniversario del premio. I principali candidati alla vittoria finale per il 2026 includono Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Rodri e Kylian Mbappé. Le ultime edizioni del premio sono state vinte da Ousmane Dembélé (2025) e Rodri (2024). This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output. [link preview]

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 6:32 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.

One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

high classifier confidence
One big trader

Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.

  • One participant drove 85% of recent flow
  • Move not broadly confirmed (2 participants)

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
21Low
Where the price path tends to go next1009 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~13h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

50 mana

Liquidity

1K mana

Total volume

351 mana

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
60.0%
7-day range
58.0% – 60.0%
Resolves
Oct 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+2.07D+2.0

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