Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
351 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 11, 2026, 6:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 60.0% (up from 58.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
351 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
2
Trades
4
over 38h
Largest order
200 mana
351 mana traded across these 4 trades (last 38h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolution criteria Questo mercato riguarda l'assegnazione del Pallone d'Oro maschile 2026, la cui cerimonia ufficiale si terrà a Londra il 26 ottobre 2026. Dato che si tratta di un mercato BINARIO (SÌ/NO) ma la domanda è formulata in modo aperto ("Chi vincerà..."), il mercato richiede che il creatore definisca un criterio specifico.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolution criteria Questo mercato riguarda l'assegnazione del Pallone d'Oro maschile 2026, la cui cerimonia ufficiale si terrà a Londra il 26 ottobre 2026. Dato che si tratta di un mercato BINARIO (SÌ/NO) ma la domanda è formulata in modo aperto ("Chi vincerà..."), il mercato richiede che il creatore definisca un criterio specifico. Si raccomanda al creatore del mercato di modificare la descrizione per chiarire la condizione di vittoria (es. "Il mercato risolve SÌ se il premio viene vinto da Lamine Yamal, altrimenti NO"). In assenza di ulteriori specifiche da parte del creatore prima della cerimonia: Il mercato risolverà SÌ se il vincitore del Pallone d'Oro sarà il favorito principale indicato dalle quote al momento della creazione del mercato (es. Harry Kane). Il mercato risolverà NO se il vincitore sarà un qualunque altro calciatore. In caso di totale ambiguità sul criterio, il mercato risolverà come N/A. La fonte ufficiale di riferimento per la verifica del vincitore è il sito ufficiale del premio (https://ballondor.com/) o il sito di France Football (https://www.lequipe.fr/). Background La 70ª edizione del Pallone d'Oro si svolgerà presso il London Palladium a Londra. Si tratta di un'edizione storica, in quanto l'evento abbandona la classica sede di Parigi in onore del 70° anniversario del premio. I principali candidati alla vittoria finale per il 2026 includono Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Rodri e Kylian Mbappé. Le ultime edizioni del premio sono state vinte da Ousmane Dembélé (2025) e Rodri (2024). This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output. [link preview]
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 6:32 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
24h volume
50 mana
Liquidity
1K mana
Total volume
351 mana