ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 3m ago

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

As of Oct 2, 2026, 11:58 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 84.9% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ500 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ105K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
84.9%
Little changed over 24 hours
148 days until the event deadline
Deadline: February 28, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$573.1K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by 23:59 China Standard Time (UTC+8) on February 28, 2027, CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) or its controlled subsidiaries receive official government approval that renews or reissues the mining license authorizing production to resume at the Jianxiawo (枧下窝) lithium-bearing ceramic clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi Province. Otherwise, this market reso…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by 23:59 China Standard Time (UTC+8) on February 28, 2027, CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) or its controlled subsidiaries receive official government approval that renews or reissues the mining license authorizing production to resume at the Jianxiawo (枧下窝) lithium-bearing ceramic clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi Province. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Acceptable Proof & Verification Sources: Official corporate regulatory filings or announcements from CATL (SZSE: 300750) on CNINFO or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE). Official government notices from the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources or the Bureau of Natural Resources of Yichun, such as postings on the Jiangxi Public Resources Trading System. Reports from reputable financial news publications (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Caixin, Jiemian News) confirming the official renewal of the permit. Clarifications: Provisional or conditional approvals that explicitly allow CATL to resume mining activities at the Jianxiawo mine count as a YES. Exploration-only permits, mineral processing/refining approvals, or approvals for other unrelated Yichun assets do not satisfy the criteria. Changes to the holding company name or minor adjustments to the asset's naming convention will still resolve YES as long as they explicitly apply to the same physical Jianxiawo mine. Background In August 2025, CATL suspended operations at its flagship Jianxiawo lepidolite clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi, after its mining license expired on August 9, 2025. The mine represents a critical domestic supply of lithium, previously estimated to account for roughly 6% of global lithium supply and 8% of China's total output. Initially expected to resume operations within a few months, the renewal process has faced significant delays due to heightened regulatory audit requirements from the local Bureau of Natural Resources, compliance reviews under China's revised Mineral Resources Law, and environmental standards. As of June 2026, CATL is still waiting for local regulators to grant the license renewal. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesFebruary 28, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 3, 12:01 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±13 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
21Low
Where the price path tends to go next304 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting89%
  • Stable consensus5%
  • Trend continuation3%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~1w
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ500

Liquidity

Ṁ105K

Total volume

Ṁ830K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
84.9%
7-day range
84.9% – 85.2%
Resolves
Feb 28, 2027
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-0.37D-0.3

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