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Currently 61% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 39/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by 23:59 China Standard Time (UTC+8) on February 28, 2027, CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) or its controlled subsidiaries receive official government approval that renews or reissues the mining license authorizing production to resume at the Jianxiawo (枧下窝) lithium-bearing ceramic clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi Province. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Acceptable Proof & Verification Sources: Official corporate regulatory filings or announcements from CATL (SZSE: 300750) on CNINFO or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE). Official government notices from the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources or the Bureau of Natural Resources of Yichun, such as postings on the Jiangxi Public Resources Trading System. Reports from reputable financial news publications (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Caixin, Jiemian News) confirming the official renewal of the permit. Clarifications: Provisional or conditional approvals that explicitly allow CATL to resume mining activities at the Jianxiawo mine count as a YES. Exploration-only permits, mineral processing/refining approvals, or approvals for other unrelated Yichun assets do not satisfy the criteria. Changes to the holding company name or minor adjustments to the asset's naming convention will still resolve YES as long as they explicitly apply to the same physical Jianxiawo mine. Background In August 2025, CATL suspended operations at its flagship Jianxiawo lepidolite clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi, after its mining license expired on August 9, 2025. The mine represents a critical domestic supply of lithium, previously estimated to account for roughly 6% of global lithium supply and 8% of China's total output. Initially expected to resume operations within a few months, the renewal process has faced significant delays due to heightened regulatory audit requirements from the local Bureau of Natural Resources, compliance reviews under China's revised Mineral Resources Law, and environmental standards. As of June 2026, CATL is still waiting for local regulators to grant the license renewal. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketSTALE_PRICEStale priceDepth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by subjective wording.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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