Brazil Election 2026: Will Michelle Bolsonaro be registered as a candidate for any office?
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if Michelle Bolsonaro is listed by Brazil’s TSE as having filed a candidacy registration request for any office in Brazil’s 2026 general election, including president, vice president, governor, vice governor, senator, federal deputy, state deputy, or district deputy. It resolves NO if no such candidacy registration request is listed by the TSE for the 2026 general election.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if Michelle Bolsonaro is listed by Brazil’s TSE as having filed a candidacy registration request for any office in Brazil’s 2026 general election, including president, vice president, governor, vice governor, senator, federal deputy, state deputy, or district deputy. It resolves NO if no such candidacy registration request is listed by the TSE for the 2026 general election. The candidacy does not need to be finally approved, and she does not need to remain in the race; an official registration request is enough to count.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesAugust 15, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 15, 2:50 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
What's happening
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ50.3
Liquidity
Ṁ100