Both teams happy with a draw?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 55.6%.
- Final market price
- 55.6%
- Event deadline
- June 28, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 55.6%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Both teams happy with a draw? The final Manifold price was 55.6%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 55.6%.
- Market data as of
- June 22, 2026 at 10:07 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:39 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 28, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 121d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if, before kick-off of a final group-stage match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, any draw would guarantee qualification for both teams, while a loss would not guarantee qualification for either team. Only the qualification scenario before kick-off matters.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if, before kick-off of a final group-stage match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, any draw would guarantee qualification for both teams, while a loss would not guarantee qualification for either team. Only the qualification scenario before kick-off matters. The actual match result is irrelevant. The two teams must be able to secure qualification entirely through their own result. The outcome of any parallel or other matches must be irrelevant for both teams. The qualification scenario must already be known before kick-off. Situations that only become true live during the match do not count. Qualification may be through a top-two group finish or through the ranking of third-placed teams, provided qualification can already be mathematically guaranteed before kick-off under the official FIFA rules and tie-breakers.