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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 75d ago

Both teams happy with a draw?

Final price
55.6%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 55.6%.

Final market price
55.6%
Event deadline
June 28, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET
Probability 24 hours before event deadline
55.6%
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Both teams happy with a draw? The final Manifold price was 55.6%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 55.6%.

Market data as of
June 22, 2026 at 10:07 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:05 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 28, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
75d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolves YES if, before kick-off of a final group-stage match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, any draw would guarantee qualification for both teams, while a loss would not guarantee qualification for either team. Only the qualification scenario before kick-off matters.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolves YES if, before kick-off of a final group-stage match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, any draw would guarantee qualification for both teams, while a loss would not guarantee qualification for either team. Only the qualification scenario before kick-off matters. The actual match result is irrelevant. The two teams must be able to secure qualification entirely through their own result. The outcome of any parallel or other matches must be irrelevant for both teams. The qualification scenario must already be known before kick-off. Situations that only become true live during the match do not count. Qualification may be through a top-two group finish or through the ranking of third-placed teams, provided qualification can already be mathematically guaranteed before kick-off under the official FIFA rules and tie-breakers.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ114.9

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
55.6%
Resolves
Jun 28, 2026

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