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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 35d ago

At least 3 different songs will reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 between June 14, 2026 and July 26, 2026 (7/26/26).

Final price
54.8%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 54.8%.

Final market price
54.8%
Event deadline
July 26, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

At least 3 different songs will reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 between June 14, 2026 and July 26, 2026 (7/26/26). The final Manifold price was 54.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 54.8%.

Market data as of
July 31, 2026 at 1:51 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:05 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
July 26, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
35d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if at least three (3) unique songs occupy the #1 position on the official Billboard Hot 100 charts with issue dates between June 14, 2026, and July 26, 2026. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if at least three (3) unique songs occupy the #1 position on the official Billboard Hot 100 charts with issue dates between June 14, 2026, and July 26, 2026. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. The six weekly charts with official issue dates within this timeframe are: June 20, 2026 June 27, 2026 July 4, 2026 July 11, 2026 July 18, 2026 July 25, 2026 If a song reaches #1 on any of these six weekly charts, it counts toward the total. If the total number of unique songs that hold the #1 spot across these weeks is 3 or more, the market resolves to YES. Source of Truth: The official weekly charts hosted on Billboard Hot 100. In the event of temporary schedule delays or adjustments by Billboard, the charts corresponding to the tracking weeks for these specific dates will be used for resolution. Background The Billboard Hot 100 is the standard measure of song popularity in the United States, compiled weekly using data from streaming, radio airplay, and retail sales. At the start of the 2026 chart year, Billboard adjusted its recurrent rules to move older, declining songs off the charts faster, potentially clearing the path for more frequent changes at the top of the chart. However, dominant multi-week hits can still block new music from reaching the top spot. This market tracks whether early summer 2026 will see high turnover at #1 or be dominated by one or two major releases. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ10

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
54.8%
Resolves
Jul 26, 2026

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