Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
35.7 mana
Total volume
549.9 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
As of Oct 18, 2026, 6:51 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 77.4% (up from 68.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 35.7 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
77.4%
+9 percentage points
over 24 hours68.4% → 77.4%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (9 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
50%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
107
over 40 days
Largest order
100 mana
336.5 mana traded across these 107 trades (last 40 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$336.5 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
An AI program writes a correct proof that the Riemann hypothesis is either true, false, or undecidable (within the axioms of complex analysis) before 2035. Criteria for YES: (1) The proof must be vetted and approved by qualified humans in the same way that any paper would be checked for publication.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
An AI program writes a correct proof that the Riemann hypothesis is either true, false, or undecidable (within the axioms of complex analysis) before 2035. Criteria for YES: (1) The proof must be vetted and approved by qualified humans in the same way that any paper would be checked for publication. The method for verifying the proof must be acceptable to the editors of the Annals of Mathematics or an equivalently prestigious journal. This means that if the editors of the Annals think it is okay for humans to use a computer to check the proof, then that's fine. (2) The proof must primarily be the work of the AI. It cannot be a human-AI collaboration. The key creative moves in the proof must be the creation of the AI. If a human Mathematician or Computer Scientist assists the AI, it must be the same way that the people who developed AlphaGo, AlphaZero (for chess), or Stockfish have 'assisted' those programs. The criteria may be changed if a Mathematician with expertise in the relevant area tells me that my criteria are dumb and suggests better criteria. That discussion will happen in the comments. [If a human proves the Riemann Hypothesis first, this resolves as NO.] Resolution note: This market resolves identically to the corresponding source market, including N/A or partial resolutions. Any first-person language refers to that market's creator, not this market's creator.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 9.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (68.4% → 77.4%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2035 at 10:59 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 18, 6:57 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 9.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
14Low
Where the price path tends to go next586 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~6h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+9.024H+9.07D+9.0