Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
10.4 mana
Total volume
430 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 11:28 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 32.1% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 10.4 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
32.1%
Little changed over 24 hours
Not live — snapshot Oct 11, 11:28 PM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
38%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
177
over 69 days
Largest order
100 mana
417.4 mana traded across these 177 trades (last 69 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$417.4 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/40966)Resolves according to Metaculus resolution. Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/40966)Resolves according to Metaculus resolution. Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel. This includes Netanyahu getting suspended, an acting Prime Minister being appointed, or any other temporary circumstance that removes his power, if it lasts for at least 14 consecutive days entirely within 2026. (Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 12:27 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
15Low
Where the price path tends to go next1174 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
10.4 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
430 mana
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 32.1%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
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