As of Oct 12, 2026, 7:02 PM ET, Kalshi priced this market at 94.2% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $186 traded in the past 24 hours and a bid-ask spread of 0.3 pts.
The venue's feed doesn't report liquidity for this market; the price has held steady over 24 hours.
Source: Kalshi price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Book depth (±5 pts)
$40.9K
live order book
Bid-ask spread
0.3 pts
24h volume
$186
Open interest
$44.1K
It would take roughly $18.9K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
The venue's feed omits liquidity, so the score treats depth as unknown — the live order book above is the best read of how hard this price is to move.
Whose opinion is this price?
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet.
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet, so we can't say how many accounts set this price.
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution source: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the t…
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 7:11 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Polymarket prices this same question at 94% vs Kalshi at 94%. The venues broadly agree, which adds confidence to the price.
Compare on Polymarket →