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Home/Geopolitics/Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
KalshiGeopoliticsUpdated 13m ago

Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Market probability
9.6%
+4.3 percentage points
over 24 hours5.3% → 9.6%
6718 days until the event deadline
Deadline: January 1, 2045 at 10:00 AM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (0.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

What this market actually measures

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Israel Katz, then the market resolves to Yes.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Israel Katz, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution source: If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Israel Katz, th…

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 4.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (5.3% → 9.6%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2045 at 10:00 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 10, 8:55 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±32 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

Market data

24h volume

$500

Change (pts)1H-0.56H-0.524H+4.37D+4.3
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

0/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement47

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity

Insufficient data — this venue reports no volume or book depth for this market, so liquidity can't be measured (unknown, not necessarily poor).

Related markets

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

8%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$81.8 24h
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Wide spread (4.9 pts)

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next788 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~12h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Liquidity

$0

Total volume

$16.3K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Kalshi
Open interest
$6.8K
Spread
4.9 pts
Best bid
7.1%
Best ask
12.0%
7-day range
5.3% – 10.5%
Resolves
Jan 1, 2045
Resolution
If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Israel Katz, th…

Trust breakdown

0/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+28
  • Price steadiness+16
  • Missing market data-15
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Wide spread-15
Trust score0 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Kalshi

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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