Event · resolves around 2026-12-31

Fed — rate decision · Dec 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket and Manifold · $99.4K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Polymarket	Macro / Fed	28%	+5.0 pts	$99.4K	80	59	Confirmed move
Another Fed Rate Hike in 2026?	ManifoldPlay money	Macro / Fed	74%	-8.0 pts	165.7 mana	58	15	Likely noise

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.