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Fed rate hike in 2026?63%▼13.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?46%▲10.0 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?20%▼39.0 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?9%▼9.5 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?89%▼6.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?5%▼6.3 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?6%▼3.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?29%▲17.3 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?7%▲5.6 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?52%▼2.5 Will Spiderman: Brand New Day beat Spiderman: No Way Home's opening weekend?65%▲10.5 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?44%▲2.5 Will Jason Arday's 'Great and Unfortunate Things' be available for purchase in the UK on or before August 27, 2026?56%▲21.2 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?52%▲0.6 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?87%▼7.5 Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?1%▼10.5

Fed rate hike in 2026?63%▼13.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?46%▲10.0 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?20%▼39.0 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?9%▼9.5 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?89%▼6.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?5%▼6.3 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?6%▼3.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?29%▲17.3 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?7%▲5.6 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?52%▼2.5 Will Spiderman: Brand New Day beat Spiderman: No Way Home's opening weekend?65%▲10.5 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?44%▲2.5 Will Jason Arday's 'Great and Unfortunate Things' be available for purchase in the UK on or before August 27, 2026?56%▲21.2 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?52%▲0.6 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?87%▼7.5 Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?1%▼10.5

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Hot Markets

Fed rate hike in 2026?63%▼13.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?46%▲10.0 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?20%▼39.0 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?9%▼9.5 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?89%▼6.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?5%▼6.3 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?6%▼3.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?29%▲17.3 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?7%▲5.6 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?52%▼2.5 Will Spiderman: Brand New Day beat Spiderman: No Way Home's opening weekend?65%▲10.5 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?44%▲2.5 Will Jason Arday's 'Great and Unfortunate Things' be available for purchase in the UK on or before August 27, 2026?56%▲21.2 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?52%▲0.6 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?87%▼7.5 Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?1%▼10.5

Fed rate hike in 2026?63%▼13.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?46%▲10.0 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?20%▼39.0 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?9%▼9.5 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?89%▼6.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?5%▼6.3 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?6%▼3.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?29%▲17.3 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?7%▲5.6 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?52%▼2.5 Will Spiderman: Brand New Day beat Spiderman: No Way Home's opening weekend?65%▲10.5 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?44%▲2.5 Will Jason Arday's 'Great and Unfortunate Things' be available for purchase in the UK on or before August 27, 2026?56%▲21.2 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?52%▲0.6 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?87%▼7.5 Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?1%▼10.5

Event · resolves around 2026-10-28

Fed's — rate decision · Oct 2026

5 related contracts across Kalshi · $456 traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	Macro / Fed	66%	-8.0 pts	$292.7	44	0	Likely noise
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	Macro / Fed	19%	0.0 pts	$84.3	36	12	Developing
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	Macro / Fed	94%	0.0 pts	$40	39	14	Developing
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	Macro / Fed	98%	0.0 pts	$22	37	13	Developing
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	Macro / Fed	2%	0.0 pts	$17	36	12	Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.