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Event · resolves around 2029-01-20
2 related contracts across Kalshi and Manifold · $6.2K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 65% | +4.5 pts | 22 | Worth watching |
| Will 110 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day while Trump is President? | Manifold | 64% | 0.0 pts | 29 | Worth watching |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.