Event · resolves around 2029-01-20
Hormuz — election · Jan 2029
2 related contracts across Kalshi and Manifold · $5.1K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 69% | +4.0 pts | 43 | Developing |
| Will 110 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day while Trump is President? | ManifoldPlay money | 43% | -12.1 pts | 19 | Likely noise |
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