Event · resolves around 2027-02-02
Democrats — election · Feb 2027
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will the Democrats hold 53 or more Senate seats in the next Congress? | ManifoldPlay money | 37% | +0.5 pts | 42 | Developing |
| Will the Democrats hold 54 or more Senate Seats in the next Congress? | ManifoldPlay money | 36% | -2.8 pts | 7 | Likely noise |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.