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Event · resolves around 2027-01-03
2 related contracts across Polymarket and Manifold · $212.8K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | Polymarket | 44% | -8.0 pts | 58 | Real move |
| If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat? | Manifold | 27% | 0.0 pts | 32 | Worth watching |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.