Israel closes its airspace by September 30?77%10.0Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?66%6.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?49%1.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?13%6.9Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?60%2.4Will any US Senate election in 2026 have a winning margin of 1.000% or less?60%10.4Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?24%4.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 7?95%3.5Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September?76%2.0Will Opportunity party get 9.000% or more of the party vote in the 2026 NZ general election?13%27.7Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?16%1.5Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? 12%6.8Will the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate win any state trump won by 10% or more in 2024?35%5.4Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?17%2.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?6%3.0Will the 2028 Republican presidential candidate win any state Kamala Harris won in 2024?29%4.2

Event · resolves around 2026-12-31

Putin — election · Dec 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket and Manifold · $21.6K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Polymarket7%0.0 pts68Developing
Will the next minister-president of Saxony-Anhalt be from AfD?Manifold51%+0.8 pts38Developing

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