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Event · resolves around 2026-12-31
3 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will a Clacton by-election happen in 2026? | Manifold | 99% | 0.0 pts | 36 | Worth watching |
| Will Count BinFace win the Clacton-by-election? | Manifold | 17% | 0.0 pts | 31 | Worth watching |
| If Boris Johnson stands in the Clacton by-election, will he win? | Manifold | 30% | 0.0 pts | 29 | Worth watching |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.