Event · resolves around 2026-11-30
Senate — election · Nov 2026
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 8% or more and lose? | ManifoldPlay money | 8% | -0.6 pts | 43 | Developing |
| Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 5% or more and lose? | ManifoldPlay money | 19% | -1.1 pts | 40 | Developing |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.