Event · resolves around 2026-11-30
Karol Nawrocki — election · Nov 2026
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will Karol Nawrocki be the President of Poland at the end of November 2026? | ManifoldPlay money | 63% | +13.1 pts | 2 | Likely noise |
| Will Rob Sand win 2026 Iowa governor election? | ManifoldPlay money | 85% | +5.2 pts | 33 | Developing |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.