Event · resolves around 2026-11-14
Katie Hobbs — election · Nov 2026
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will Katie Hobbs win reelection for Arizona governor in 2026? | ManifoldPlay money | 89% | 0.0 pts | 38 | Developing |
| Red wave in 2026 midterm election? | ManifoldPlay money | 3% | -4.0 pts | 29 | Developing |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.