Event · resolves around 2026-11-04
Troy Jackson — election · Nov 2026
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will Troy Jackson get 50% or more in the first round of the Maine senate election? | ManifoldPlay money | 58% | +5.0 pts | 39 | Developing |
| Will James Talarico win Tarrant County by 7.000% or more in the 2026 Texas Senate election? | ManifoldPlay money | 78% | +15.2 pts | 13 | Likely noise |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.