Israel closes its airspace by September 30?80%12.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?88%1.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 7?20%19.5Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?11%2.7Bitcoin Up or Down on September 7?35%10.0Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?94%34.5Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?28%16.3Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?61%1.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?68%5.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 7?1%3.6Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?59%2.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?75%1.0Will an official manifold account make markets for every state in every presidential election up to 204042%18.9Will a new Smash Bros game be announced in the Nintendo Direct on 9/8?41%25.5Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?55%0.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?52%2.0

Event · resolves around 2026-11-04

James Talarico — election · Nov 2026

3 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will James Talarico win Tarrant County by 7.000% or more in the 2026 Texas Senate election?Manifold61%0.0 pts40Developing
Will Troy Jackson get 50% or more in the first round of the Maine senate election?Manifold55%0.0 pts38Developing
Will Jon Ossoff and/or Roy Cooper win their senate race by 10.000% or more?Manifold44%0.0 pts17Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.