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US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?20%▼3.7 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?45%▼4.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?19%▼5.0 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 1426%▲1.0 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?37%▼3.0 US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?63%▼3.0 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?5%▲2.2 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?78%▲0.5 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?35%▼4.0 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?59%▼3.0 Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?15%▼4.4 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?56%▲1.0 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?34%▲2.0 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?83%▲3.5 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?73%▼1.5 Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?2%▼2.8 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?20%▼3.7 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?45%▼4.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?19%▼5.0 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 1426%▲1.0 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?37%▼3.0 US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?63%▼3.0 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?5%▲2.2 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?78%▲0.5 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?35%▼4.0 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?59%▼3.0 Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?15%▼4.4 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?56%▲1.0 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?34%▲2.0 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?83%▲3.5 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?73%▼1.5 Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?2%▼2.8

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US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?45%▼4.0 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?20%▼3.8 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?35%▼11.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?19%▼2.0 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 1423%▼3.0 US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?63%▲9.0 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?6%▼11.9 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?78%▲0.5 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?59%▲0.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?56%▲7.0 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?35%▲2.0 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?84%▲5.5 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?73%▲2.5 US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?83%▲2.0 Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?9%▲4.4 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?43%▲2.5 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?45%▼4.0 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?20%▼3.8 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?35%▼11.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?19%▼2.0 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 1423%▼3.0 US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?63%▲9.0 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?6%▼11.9 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?78%▲0.5 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?59%▲0.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?56%▲7.0 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?35%▲2.0 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?84%▲5.5 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?73%▲2.5 US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?83%▲2.0 Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?9%▲4.4 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?43%▲2.5

Event · resolves around 2026-07-14

Rebecca Shepherd — election · Jul 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $671K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Polymarket	Politics	2%	+0.2 pts	$444.5K	91	91	Worth watching
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Polymarket	Politics	28%	0.0 pts	$226.5K	82	87	Worth watching

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.