Event · resolves around 2026-12-31
Doge- — event · Dec 2026
5 related contracts across Polymarket and Manifold · $58.6K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 4% | +0.3 pts | 72 | Developing |
| Will Anthropic release a new line of models by the end of the year? | Manifold | 24% | 0.0 pts | 21 | Developing |
| Will Chuck Schumer announce he’s not running for reelection before EOY 2027? | Manifold | 56% | -3.4 pts | 32 | Developing |
| Will Aughinish announce production curtailment or major layoffs by end-2026? | Manifold | 35% | 0.0 pts | 5 | Developing |
| Andy Burnham to announce wealth tax before December 2026 | Manifold | 30% | 0.0 pts | 2 | Developing |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.